对比较优势提升是否导致贸易摩擦激化的实证研究--基于中国部分制造业案例

Empirical research on whether improvement of comparativeadvantage leads to intensification of trade friction-A case study on some Chinese manufacturing industries

中国是被动遭遇贸易摩擦最多的国家之一,其根源值得深入研究。利用Costinot等提出的新型显示性比较优势指数,选择包括中国在内的全球20个重要国家及其14个重要行业,测度了各国各行业层面的比较优势。通过中国本身的纵向对比发现,相比1995年,2017年中国大多数制造业行业的比较优势都有明显提升;通过与发达国家和其他发展中国家分别进行横向比较,发现中国在大部分行业上的相对提升幅度更大。将新型显示性比较优势指数和贸易摩擦数据相结合的实证分析发现,中国相对其他国家在行业比较优势上的提升确实显著地增加了其他国家在该行业对中国发起贸易摩擦的概率及数量。正是基于在现有行业上中国难以避免贸易摩擦的发现,本研究提出的政策建议可为中国有效应对贸易摩擦提供一定的参考。

China is on the rank of the countries subjected to the most trade frictions,and its root cause is worthy of research.The new revealed comparative advantage index proposed by Costinot was employed to measure the comparative advantages of each industry level in each country,by selecting 20 important countries in the world and their 14 important industries,including China.Through China's own longitudinal comparison,compared to 1995,2017 saw significant improvement in the comparative advantage of most manufacturing industries in China;through horizontal comparisons with developed countries and other developing countries respectively,China was found to have made a more dramatic leap in most industries.An empirical analysis combined with the new revealed comparative advantage index and trade friction data shows that China's improvement in the industry's comparative advantage has indeed significantly increased the probability and quantity of other countries in the industry to launch trade frictions against China.Based on the discovery of China's inevitability to encounter trade friction in the existing industry,a policy recommendation hereby proposed can provide a reference for China's tackling trade frictions effectively.