上犹江水库入库洪水预报的流溪河模型研究

Study on Liuxihe model for inflow flood forecast of Shangyoujiang Reservoir

本文采用90 m空间分辨率的数字高程模型数据构建上犹江水库控制流域的流溪河模型,基于不同河道分级和不同数量的雨量站方案,探讨模型在水库入库洪水预报中的适用性。采用粒子群优化算法选取最优参数,对2009—2020年间18场实测洪水进行了模拟。结果表明,3级河道构建的模型模拟指标比4级河道略好,模型预报效果更好。分别采用9个和15个雨量站构建模型并对2000—2020年内31场洪水进行模拟,结果表明,15个雨量站的模拟效果比9个雨量站的好,增加雨量站网密度有利于提高流溪河模型的模拟效果。流溪河模型可用于上犹江水库入库洪水预报。

This paper uses digital elevation model data with a spatial resolution of 90 m to construct a Liuxihe model,and discusses its applicability to the Shangyoujiang Reservoir basin with different river channel grades and rainfall station densities.Its optimal parameters are determined using the particle swarm optimization algorithm,and then it is used to simulate 18 flood events measured in 2009-2020.The results show that for this model,its simulation index is slightly better when the river channels are divided into three grades for model construction than the case of four grades,and the flood forecasts with the former are more accurate.Comparison of the model schemes based on 9 and 15 rainfall stations and their simulations of 31 flood events of 2000-2020 shows that the scheme of 15 stations is better,and high density of gauge stations is conducive to improving the Liuxihe model and its forecasting accuracy.Therefore,the Liuxihe model can be used in the flood forecasts of the Shangyoujiang Reservoir.