冷热电综合能源系统变权重SMPC调度策略研究

A Variable-weight Stochastic Model Predictive Control Operation Strategy for Integrated Energy System

综合能源系统内存在多能流耦合以及强不确定性等特点,因此高效的调度策略对系统性能至关重要。本文首先建立了能同时供应冷热电的综合能源系统的混合整型线性调度模型,在此基础上,提出了一种变权重随机模型预测控制(SMPC)调度策略,该调度策略主要由供需预测模型,场景削减,滚动优化以及反馈校正四部分组成。仿真结果表明,本文所提策略较传统SMPC调度策略,会对设备出力大小以及启停状态微调,并且会改变系统内燃气以及购电比例,但总的运行费用几乎不变。

An efficient operation strategy is critical to performance of integrated energy system because of its coupling multi-energy flows and strong uncertainties.This paper first establishes a mixed integer linear scheduling model for an integrated energy system that can simultaneously supply cooling,heating and power.On this basis,a variable-weight stochastic model predictive control(SMPC)operation strategy is proposed.The operation strategy is composed of four sections,namely predictive models,scenarios reduction,rolling optimization and feedback correction.The simulation results show that the output and start-stop status of the equipment,the purchased gas and electricity of the variable-weight SMPC operation strategy in this paper differ from those of the traditional SMPC operation strategy,but the total operating cost is almost unchanged.