基于SIR模型的流行性传染病传播趋势预测研究

Research of transmission trend prediction of epidemic infectious disease based on SIR model

传染病的传播严重威胁人民的生命安全,及时有效地预测传染病传播趋势,对传染病的防治具有重要的作用.基于SIR模型,模拟了流行性传染病在人群中的传播过程及传播趋势.利用公开数据集统计了国内外疫情数据,基于SIR模型,利用最小二乘法进行数据拟合,对疫情传播趋势进行了预测和分析,并对预测结果进行了验证.实验结果表明,预测结果和确诊数据能有效拟合,验证了模型的有效性.

The spread of infectious diseases is a serious threat to human lives.Timely and effective predict the spread of infectious diseases play an important role in the prevention and control of infectious diseases.Based on SIR model,simulates the transmission trend of epidemic infectious diseases in humans.The public data set is used to count the domestic and foreign epidemic data.Based on SIR model and using the least square method to fit the data,predicts and analyses the epidemic trend,and verifies the prediction results.The experimental results show that the prediction results and the real data can be effectively fitted,which verifies the effectiveness of the model.