上海合作组织框架内的中俄印巴安全合作——基于四国在联合国大会投票的考察

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a Framework for China-Russia-India-Pakistan Security Cooperation:Considerations based on Voting Records at the United Nations General Assembly

中俄印巴安全合作是构建上海合作组织安全共同体的关键。本文一方面通过文本分析的方法提炼出2001~2020年上合组织优先性安全议程及其变化趋势,另一方面采用投票一致性指数与投票背离指数系统考察了中俄印巴在联合国大会对应议题领域的安全政策契合程度。结果发现,发展安全、联合禁毒、反恐合作、防扩散以及裁军与军控是上合组织优先设置的五大安全议题。总体而言,四国在上述议题领域的安全政策契合度逐次递减,而俄罗斯和印度的背离倾向最为显著。本文认为,威胁认知与共同利益是影响安全政策契合度的重要因素,进而导致四国在不同议题领域的安全合作水平各不相同。在此基础上,根据议题特点有针对性地选择恰当的合作策略是提升中俄印巴安全合作水平、进而推动构建上合组织安全共同体的可行性路径选择。

China-Russia-India-Pakistan security cooperation is central to the development of an SCO security community.This article uses content analysis to elaborate priorities and to trace trends in the SCO’s agenda from2001-2020;it further assesses the extent to which there is policy alignment on respective items on the security agenda between China,Russia,India and Pakistan through a systematic analysis of their respective voting records at the UN General Assembly.It finds that the top five security issues set by the SCO are security development,joint narcotics control,counterterrorism cooperation,non-proliferation and disarmament as well as arms control.Generally speaking,the four countries are increasingly fragmented in terms of their policy alignment on these issues,with the highest level of policy deviation emerging between Russia and India.This article contends that the critical factors determining the level of security policy alignment between states are their perceived threats and shared interests.These two factors explain why the four states maintain varied levels of cooperation across each of these issue areas.On the basis of this understanding,it is argued that a feasible path for China,Russia,India and Pakistan to enhance the level of their security cooperation and to promote the establishment of the SCO security community is to identify more targeted and suitable policy strategies for each respective agenda item.