我国北方一作区马铃薯高产稳产区分布特征

Distributions of High and Stable Yield Zones for Potato in the Single-cropping Region in Northern China

北方一作区马铃薯种植面积和总产量居我国首位,明确其高产稳产区分布,对马铃薯种植合理布局具有重要意义。基于1981—2019年研究区域内234个气象站点逐日气象数据以及作物、土壤数据,利用APSIM-Potato模型,以产量平均值和变异系数为高产性和稳产性评价指标,将研究区域划分为高产高稳、高产低稳、低产高稳和低产低稳4个亚区,分析不同生产水平下我国北方一作区马铃薯高产稳产区分布特征,探讨降水和土壤对马铃薯高产性和稳产性的影响。结果表明:不同生产水平下马铃薯高产区比例呈下降趋势;随着限制因素增加,高产高稳区面积比例逐渐降低,气候-土壤潜在生产水平下高产高稳区面积比例仅占研究区域总面积的13%;高产低稳区是潜在的高产高稳区,及时采取有效措施可提升稳产性。降水对马铃薯高产性和稳产性的影响大于土壤。实际生产中,降水和土壤限制下高产性和稳产性降低的区域,应注意结合当地灌溉条件配合耕作措施,以确保马铃薯高产稳产。

The planting area and production of potato in the single-cropping region in northern China(SCRN)are in the first place in China,which plays a prominent role for maintaining national food security.It’s essential to understand the potato yield potential in SCRN for regional optimized distribution and improvement of potato production.Two indices,i.e.,the average and the coefficient of variation of potato yield potential under different production levels,are employed to investigate the potato yield level and yield stability.Based on the meteorological data from 234 weather stations from 1981 to 2019,the soil data and the crop data in the study region,the yield potentials under different production levels(i.e.,potential production level,rainfed potential production level,and the climate-soil potential production level,respectively)are simulated using the well-calibrated and validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulater of Potato(APSIM-Potato).The study area is classified into four types of zones with different yield patterns:High yield level and high yield stability zones,high yield level and low yield stability zones,low yield level and high yield stability zones,and low yield level and low yield stability zones.Based on the zoning indices and the standards,the distributions of four types of yield zones under different production levels are clarified and the effect of precipitation and soil on yield level and yield stability are analyzed.An increasing trend of the station percentage for high yield zones is defined during the period from 1981 to 2019.The proportion of high yield level and high yield stability zones in the study area decreases gradually with the constraints increasing from the potential production level with the radiation and temperature constrained to the climate-soil potential production level with the radiation,temperature,precipitation and soil constrained.Only 13%of the study area over the study period(1981—2019)shows the yield pattern of high yield level and high yield stability zones under the climate-soil potential production level.The high yield level and low yield stability zones are the potential high yield level and high yield stability zones in the future,which need further attention and effective measures to improve the yield stability of potato.Precipitation shows a greater effect on the potato yield level and yield stability than soil in the study region.To ensure the high and stable yield of potato in the study region,more attentions should be paid on the regions with negative effect of precipitation and soil on the yield level and yield stability.Actions should be taken into considering both on the local irrigation levels and the tillage measures.