一种城市洪涝快速分析方法的设计与应用

A smart-framework for urban flood and waterlogging analysis

设计了一种综合运用城市洪涝模型、机器学习算法、案例式决策等技术的城市洪涝快速分析方法,以满足洪涝应急决策需求。首先,利用城市洪涝模型,建立以排水分区为单元的内涝方案库,其次,基于长序列历史降雨数据提取城市典型降雨时空模式。当发生强降雨事件时,第一步,对多源降雨数据进行格式同化和时空模式判别;第二步,将降雨和水情数据作为边界条件,调用水文、河道模型对水库、河道洪水过程进行计算,同时,基于排水分区尺度的降雨匹配从内涝方案库中提取各排水分区内涝结果;第三步,将水库、河道洪水实时计算结果和内涝匹配结果进行汇总,按结构化模板生成分析报告;最后,由专家确认并完善分析报告,为应急决策提供支撑。该方法在深圳市河湾片区进行实际应用,得到了较好的效果。

A smart-framework for urban flood and waterlogging analysis is designed by integrating various technologies,such as flood and waterlogging model,machine learning and case decision etc;which meets the needs of flood emergency decision-making.Firstly,the urban flood model is used to establish the waterlogging scheme database with drainage division as the unit.Secondly,the temporal and spatial patterns of typical urban rainfall are extracted based on long series historical rainfall data.When a heavy rainfall event occurs,the first step is to assimilate the multi-source rainfall data and distinguish the spatial and temporal patterns.The second step is to use the rainfall and hydrological data as the boundary conditions to calculate the flood process of reservoirs and rivers by using the hydrological and river channel models.At the same time,based on the similar rainfall of drainage partition scale,the waterlogging results of each drainage partition extracted from the waterlogging scheme database are matched,In the third step,the real-time flood calculation results and waterlogging matching results of reservoirs and rivers are summarized,and the analysis report is generated according to the structured template.Finally,the analysis report is confirmed and improved by experts to provide support for emergency decision-making.The method has been applied in Hewan District of Shenzhen City and good results have been obtained.