考虑车辆类型变化的中国乘用车排放特征

Emission characteristics of passenger cars in China considering the change of vehicle types

通过引入Lotka-Volterra模型预测了中国未来30年的乘用车竞争趋势;通过引入CHG、VOC、CO、SO_(2)、PM_(2.5)、NOx6类污染物更新了全生命周期清单;并据此建立了政策影响模型和敏感性模型评估电动化、轻量化和清洁化政策情景减排效果.结果表明,乘用车市场的主要竞争力来源于新能源与传统能源的竞争,且纯电动与混合动力乘用车呈S型曲线发展,汽油乘用车占比由92%减少到1%;全生命周期中,纯电动乘用车对CHG、VOC、CO减排效益最优,为20%~85%;汽油与天然气乘用车对SO_(2)和PM_(2.5)的减排效益最优,为50.0%;3类情景下税收补贴类政策敏感性最强,CHG、VOC和CO的最优减排情景为电气化情景,PM_(2.5)、NOx的最优减排情景为清洁化情景,而SO_(2)的最优减排情景则为整车轻量化.

The paper introduced the Lotka-Volterra model to predict the trend of passenger car competition in China in the next 30years.Six pollutants of CHG,VOC,CO,SO_(2),PM_(2.5),and NOx were included to update the life cycle list;then policy impact models and sensitivity models were established to evaluate the emission reduction effects of electrification,lightweight and clean policy scenarios.The main competitiveness of the passenger car market come from the competition between new energy and traditional energy.Blade electric passenger cars and hybrid passenger cars will develop in an S-shaped curve,meanwhile,the market share of gasoline passenger cars will be reduced from 92%to 1%.From the perspective of life cycle,blade electric passenger cars had the best emissions reduction benefits for CHG,VOC,and CO,which was 20%~85%.Gasoline and natural gas passenger cars had the best emissions reduction benefits for SO_(2) and PM_(2.5),which was 50.0%.In three scenarios,the tax subsidy policy was the most sensitive factor,and the optimal emission reduction scenario for CHG,VOC and CO was electrification scenario,the optimal emission reduction scenario for PM_(2.5) and NOx was clean scenario,and the optimal emission reduction scenario for SO_(2) was lightweight scenario.