天然气供应能力测算方法构建及分析软件开发

Natural gas supply capacity calculation method construction and analysis software development

为了构建适合我国天然气产业实际的天然气供应能力测算方法和相关软件,分析了影响天然气供应能力的外部因素和天然气产业链内部因素,分别考虑国产气、进口气(管道气+LNG)两种气源类型,构建了供应能力分析流程,统筹考虑国内外资源情况建立了基于项目可靠性、经济性、战略安全性的项目优化方法,并利用情景规划思路编制了供应能力分析软件。研究结果表明:①天然气供应能力受资源基础、投资规模、勘探开发节奏、开发技术、成本、气价、政策法规、多气源优化等多方面因素的影响;②所构建的测算方法模型符合我国天然气供应能力评价实际和现有数据库资料的特点,通过对不同类型气田、不同进口气源单独计算并汇总到公司、国家层面,可以大幅度提高预测的精度;③供应能力分析软件设置了多种计算方法,可以针对研究需要灵活选择,对于新增储量模块,可以选择生命模型法进行预测或者直接录入规划数值,对于国产气产量潜力分析模块,有开发方案的气田采用稳产年限、稳产期规模等开发指标预测气田产量,而无开发方案的气田和未来新增储量则通过类比同类型气田采气速度、稳产期末采出程度等参数来测算气田产气量。结论认为,该研究成果可以有效地提高天然气供应能力预测的精度和效率。

In order to construct a natural gas supply capacity calculation method suitable for the actual situations of China's natural gas industry and develop related software,this paper analyzes the external factors influencing natural gas supply capacity and the internal factors of natural gas industry chain.Then,a supply capacity analysis process is established based on two types of gas sources,respectively,i.e.,domestic gas and imported gas(pipeline gas+LNG),and a project optimization method based on project reliability,economy and strategic security is established by considering domestic and foreign resource situations overall.Finally,supply capacity analysis software is developed according to the idea of scenario planning.And the following research results are obtained.First,natural gas supply capacity is affected by many factors,including resource base,investment scale,exploration and development rhythm,development technology,cost,gas price,policy and regulation,and multi-gas source optimization.Second,this newly constructed calculation method model is consistent with the actual evaluation of domestic natural gas supply capacity and the characteristics of existing database,and can improve the prediction accuracy greatly by calculating different types of gas fields and different imported gas sources separately and then by summarizing them at the level of company and nation.Third,a variety of calculation methods are set up in the supply capacity analysis software,and they can be selected flexibly according to research needs.For the new reserve module,the life model method can be selected for prediction or the planning value can be input directly.As for domestic gas production potential analysis module,the production rate of the gas fields with development plan can be predicted by using stable production period limit,scale in the stable production period and other development indicators;while the production of the gas fields without development plan and the future new reserves can be calculated by using the parameters of the analogue gas field of the same type,such as the production rate,and the degree of reserve recovery at the end of stable production.In conclusion,the research results can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of natural gas supply capacity.