零售生鲜猪肉中沙门菌污染对居民健康影响的初步定量风险评估

Preliminary quantitative risk assessment of the effect of Salmonella on human health in retail fresh pork

目的对零售生鲜猪肉从销售至食用阶段沙门菌的风险水平开展定量风险评估,为我国生鲜猪肉中沙门菌的风险管理提供理论依据。方法生鲜猪肉的沙门菌污染水平来源于国家食品安全风险监测数据,基于ComBase数据库拟合沙门菌生长模型,参考文献报道的交叉污染模型,采用@RISK软件蒙特卡罗模拟分析厨房烹饪猪肉交叉污染即食食品的数量,结合剂量-反应关系模型估算居民患沙门菌病的风险。结果每100万居民每年因生鲜猪肉罹患沙门菌病的人数约为4748人。敏感性分析表明,患病风险与即食食品的准备率、猪肉消费量、初始污染浓度、不正确清洗手、菜刀和砧板的行为等参数成正相关。如果将生鲜猪肉中沙门菌的污染浓度控制在1 CFU/g以下,导致的平均发病人数预估将减少59.39%(1928人/百万人);将菜刀和砧板的生熟分开率或完全清洗率提高至90%,导致的平均发病人数将减少58.97%(1948人/百万人)。结论控制零售生鲜猪肉中沙门菌污染浓度或增强卫生习惯可有效降低沙门菌患病风险。

OBJECTIVE A quantitative microbiological risk assessment was conducted for Salmonella spp. in fresh pork from retail stores to consumers in China in order to provide evidence for adopting effective risk management measures. METHODS The national food safety and risk monitoring data was used to estimate the initial contamination level of Salmonella in the retail fresh pork. The growth model and the cross-contamination model of Salmonella were referenced from the ComBase data base and scientific literature, respectively. Then the human health risk was predicted by the consumption of Salmonella-contaminated fresh pork and the Beta-Poisson dose-response model. RESULTS The number of Salmonellosis per year among 1 million residents due to fresh pork was estimated to be 4748. The sensitivity analysis showed that the risk of Salmonellosis was mainly and positively correlated with the preparation rate of ready to eat food, the consumption quantity of pork, the initial contamination level of Salmonella in fresh pork, and the proportion of improper cleaning of knives and chopping boards. When the contamination level of Salmonella in fresh pork is controlled below 1 CFU/g, the average probability of illness will be reduced by 59.39%;the average probability of illness will be reduced by 58.97% by increasing the ratio of complete cleaning of chopping boards or the separation ratio of chopping boards for raw and ready-to-eat food to 90%. CONCLUSION The risk could be effectively reduced by controlling the concentration of Salmonella contamination in retail pork or improving hygiene practices.