碳中和目标背景下的建筑碳排放计算模型研究综述

Review of building carbon emission calculation models in context of carbon neutrality

为应对全球气候变化,中国政府提出于2030年前后达到二氧化碳排放量峰值,争取在2060年前实现碳中和。建筑碳排放的控制是减排工作的关键。在碳中和目标背景下,各国亟需制定涵盖建筑能耗及碳排放计算模型的减碳路线。建立建筑碳排放计算模型的基本方法分为自上而下方法和自下而上方法。欧美国家主要应用的建筑碳排放计算模型有Invert/EE-Lab、ECCABS、RE-BUILDS、CoreBee、Scout、BLUES和ELENA。结合情景分析,各模型可对不同国家的碳排放趋势进行预测并给出适宜的减碳措施。通过制定积极的政策,中国建筑碳排放可于2030年前后达到峰值。采用CBCEM模型对中国建筑碳排放总量控制路径进行探究并提出了相应的减碳路线。在城市化进程加快的过程中,中国需要协同控制建筑面积和建筑能耗,优化能源结构和产业结构,以实现“2030年碳达峰,2060年碳中和”的战略目标。

In response to global climate change, the Chinese government has set a target of reaching a peak in carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and striving to be carbon neutrality by 2060. Building carbon emission control is the key to reduce emission. In the context of carbon neutrality, it is imperative for countries to develop carbon reduction routes that cover building energy consumption and carbon emission calculation models. The basic methods of building carbon emission calculation models can be divided into the top-down method and the bottom-up method. Invert/EE-Lab, ECCABS, RE-BUILDS, CoreBee, Scout, BLUES and ELENA are the main models used in the calculation of building carbon emissions in Europe and America. Combined with the scenario analysis, the models can predict the carbon emission trends of different countries and give appropriate carbon reduction measures. Through proactive policies, carbon emissions from buildings in China could peak around 2030. The CBCEM model is used to explore the control path of building carbon emissions in China, and proposes the corresponding carbon reduction route. In the process of accelerating urbanization, China needs to control floor area and building energy consumption coordinately, and optimize the energy mix and industrial structure, in order to achieve the goal of “carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”.