阿富汗政府与塔利班和解的困境及前景

The Dilemma of Reconciliation between the Afghan Government and the Taliban

阿富汗人内部谈判2020年9月正式开启以来,阿富汗政府与塔利班和解的难度越来越大,不仅和平谈判进展非常艰难,而且彼此否认对方的合法性,争斗不断升级。双方在全面停火、宪法、政体、选举等重大政治议题上存在严重分歧甚至尖锐对立,使得和解不可避免地陷入困境。美国是阿富汗和平和解进程最重要的外部推动者,也是阿富汗政府与塔利班和解困境出现的最主要外部因素。越来越多的阿富汗利益攸关方采取对阿富汗政府和塔利班"两面下注"的策略,势必加大阿富汗政府与塔利班和解的难度。在内外相关因素的交互作用下,阿富汗政府与塔利班和解困境在短期内难以破解。

Since the official opening of the Afghan internal negotiations,the dilemma of reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban has become increasingly prominent.The progress of peace talks is very difficult,and each side denies the legitimacy of the other.The two sides have different opinions about comprehensive ceasefire,constitution,regime and elections.The US is the most important external promoter of the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan,as well as the most important external factor that causes the dilemma of reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban.It is difficult to address the dilemma of reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban in a short time.