中国风能资源气候特征和开发潜力研究

STYDY ON CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES IN CHINA

中国风能资源气候特征与中国季风气候和东高西低的阶梯式地貌紧密相关,基于中国气象局风能资源高时空分辨率数据集及测风塔实测数据的气候学分析得到:风力较强的冬季风和春季活跃的北方气旋活动,形成了"三北"地区丰富的风能资源;平原地区风切变指数大于沿海,沿海地区风切变指数大于内陆山区。此外,通过建立可利用风能资源等级的二元划分方法,并采用中国主流风电机组,评估了全国可利用风能资源分布和技术开发量,得到中国陆地80、100、120和140 m高度上技术开发总量分别为32亿kW、39亿kW、46亿kW和51亿kW;近海水深5~25 m和25~50 m海域内100 m高度风能资源技术开发量分别为2.1亿kW和1.9亿kW;140 m高度上全国非常丰富和丰富等级的风能资源技术开发量相对于100 m高度共增加8亿kW,其主要分布在内蒙古、甘肃和新疆。

Climatic characteristics of wind energy resources in China are closely related to Chinese monsoon climate and the three-step terrain with high-lying west and low-lying east.Based on the high resolution simulated winds and the in-situ winds measured from masts,the climatological analysis show that(1)the abundant wind energy resources over the"Three Norths"regions in China mainly benefit from contributions of the strong winter winds and active northern cyclones in spring,and(2)wind shear index in the plain area is larger than that in the coastal areas with a relatively smaller index over inland mountain areas.In addition,a two-dimensional division method of available wind energy resources is established.Then the distribution and technical potentials of wind energy resources are assessed using the two-dimensional division method as well as the configurations of wind turbines widely used in China.The estimates of the onshore wind technical potentials for China show that 3200 GW,3900 GW,4600 GW and 5100 GW of installed capacity could be harnessed at 80 m,100 m,120 m and 140 m,respectively,and the offshore wind technical potentials at 100 m are 210 GW and 190 GW at 5-25 m and 25-50 m water depths.The technical potential at 140 m ranked as the most abundant and abundant level is 800 GW higher than that at 100 m,which is mainly distributed in Inner-Mongolia,Gansu and Xinjiang provinces.