中国的省际调出技术复杂度——演变趋势、驱动因素与分布特征

The sophistication of China’s inter-provincial outflows——Evolution tendency,driving factors,and distribution features

省际调出技术复杂度的提升,不仅关系到中国大国经济效应的发挥,而且关系到中国经济的高质量发展。本文基于中国6年30省的投入产出表,采用多种方法,系统地分析了1987-2012年中国的省际调出技术复杂度,主要的发现有:(1)中国的省际调出技术复杂度在显著提升,且各省份的技术复杂度呈现收敛趋势。(2)沿海省份的省际调出技术复杂度高于内陆省份的省际调出技术复杂度,但内陆省份具有明显的"追赶效应"。(3)在中国省际调出技术复杂度提升的过程中,部门内效应起主要作用,部门间效应起次要作用。(4)中国省际调出技术复杂度的提升路径较为合理,属于增长主导型,并伴随着省际不平等的缩小。(5)中国各省省际调出技术复杂度的排名等级具备一定的稳定性;但位于中高等级的省份仍面临较大的降级风险,位于低等级的省份实现等级跃升的难度较大。

The improvement of the sophistication of inter-provincial outflows not only determines the exertion of China’s big country effect,but also determines the high-quality development of China’s economy.Therefore,based on the input-output tables of China’s 30 provinces for 6 years,this paper uses several methods to systematically analyze the sophistication of China’s inter-provincial outflows from 1987 to 2012.The main findings are as follows:(1)The sophistication of China’s inter-provincial outflows increases significantly,and all provinces show a convergence trend.(2)The inter-provincial outflows sophistication of coastal provinces is higher than that of inland provinces,but the inland provinces have obvious catch-up effect.(3)In the process of increasing the sophistication of China’s interprovincial outflows,intra-sector effect plays a major role,while inter-sector effect plays a minor role.(4)The improving path of the sophistication of China’s inter-provincial outflows is reasonable,which is growth-oriented and accompanied with the reduction of inter-provincial inequality.(5)The ranking level of each province’s inter-provincial outflows sophistication has certain stability;however,the provinces in the middle and high grades still face a greater risk of downgrade,and the provinces in the lower grades have a greater difficulty in achieving a grade jump.