“情报—决策”互动为基础的循证决策模式论析

Analysis on Evidence-based Decision-Making on the Basis of Interaction Between Intelligence and Decision-Making

[目的/意义]决策的有效性需要以科学准确的情报作为支撑。“循证决策”连接了情报与决策之间的关系,提供了科学决策的框架。因此,理解循证决策有助于把握提升决策有效性的方法,促进情报功能最大化。[方法/过程]在界定循证决策概念内涵的基础上,把握循证决策的基本框架与系统流程,探讨循证决策的实现机制以及反思如何通过循证的框架提升情报工作的能力。[结果/结论]循证决策的原则在于克服“情报失败”与“决策失败”:在决策过程中充分整合与分析科学的情报、关注组织事实、消弭情报分析的认知偏见、通过反馈机制调整决策过程。以循证的方法提升情报工作效能需要建立协同的工作机制、整合多学科的分析方法,运用新技术以及提升情报工作的适应性。

[Purpose/Significance]The effectiveness of decision-making roots in accurate intelligence.Evidence-based decision-making liaises the intelligence with the decision-making,and offers a framework of scientific decision-making.Therefore,understanding evidence-based decision making is a key to access the method of effective decision-making,which can maximize the intelligence functions.[Method/Process]Based on the definition of evidence-based decision-making,this article established the fundamental framework and systematic process,and further discussed how to achieve evidence-based decision-making and how to improve the capacity of intelligence work by the evidence-based approach.[Result/Conclusion]The principle of evidence-based decision-making is dependent upon overcoming the intelligence failure and policy failure,which means that the policy process ought to integrate the analysis of scientific intelligence,consideration of organizational facts,elimination of cognitive bias in intelligence analysis,and adjust the policy process by feedback mechanism.Promoting the effectiveness of intelligence work can follow such rationales,which are collaborative work,multi-disciplinary method,utilization of novel techniques and adaption of intelligence work.