流动人口居留稳定性的群体分异与空间格局

DURATION OF RESIDENCE AT DESTINATION AMONG CHINA’S INTERNAL MIGRANTS:GROUP DIFFERENCES AND SPATIAL VARIATIONS

利用2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文分析了流动人口居留稳定性的总体特征、群体分异和空间差异性,并对流动人口居留稳定性的影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明:①我国跨市流动人口在当前城市的平均居住时间约为5年,新生代流动人口的居留稳定性与老一代并没有显著差异,从事工业行业的流动人口居留稳定性明显低于各类服务业从业者;②省内流动人口的居留稳定性低于省际流动人口,且有更大的可能离开当前城市,转向省际流动;③城市流动人口的规模和居留稳定性在空间格局和影响因素方面均存在明显差异,虽然收入水平和就业机会依然是吸引流动人口的主要因素,但公共服务、住房市场和环境等城市宜居性因素对提高流动人口的居留稳定性更为重要。

With the emergence of new mobility patterns such as city-to-city migration,secondary migration,and return migration,the spatial patterns of population mobility are increasingly diversified,which has become a new challenge to the stability of the migrant population’s residence in the destination cities.In this context,this article analyses the duration of residence at destination cities among Chinese migrants,with a special attention on its group differences and spatial variations based on the individual data from the 2015 China 1% National Population Survey and supplemented by the Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey data.Results show that the average length for a migrant to stay in his or her destination is approximately five years,and it is very likely for this person to migrate to another city in the third and fourth year of his or her stay in that city.Migrants employed in manufacturing sectors and those migrating for education and training show a shorter length of stay at destinations.The spatial patterns of urban floating population and their duration of residence are distinctively different.Quantitative analysis shows that despite the continuous roles played by high income and sufficient job opportunities of cities in attracting migrants,urban livability and amenity are important for stable residence of migrants,which indicates that urban governments should try to improve public services,reduce living cost,and improve environmental quality in order to realize the transformation from "attracting people" to "retaining people".