黄土高原乡村地域人—地—业协调发展时空格局与驱动机制

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION PATTERN AND DRIVING MECHANISM OF COORDINATED LEVEL OF HUMAN-LAND-INDUSTRY SYSTEM IN RURAL AREAS OF THE LOESS PLATEAU

乡村地域系统及其组成要素之间的协调性决定了乡村可持续发展能力。基于黄土高原县域乡村数据,以人口、土地、产业为研究对象,采用耦合协调度模型及地理探测器探究1990—2015年乡村地域人—地—业协调发展时空格局及驱动机制。结果发现:①乡村地域人口和耕地不断减少、产业发展缓慢,人—地—业系统整体发展水平较低;自然资源本底较好的平原、盆地、谷地为人口集中和产业发展高值区。②乡村地域人—地—业系统总体呈现"高耦合低协调"状态,协调水平呈"倒N型"降低趋势;协调区范围逐渐收缩;失调和濒临失调区范围逐渐扩大;协调水平降低区总占比高达87.98%,提高区总占比仅为10.27%,空间上呈现"分散、集中、连片消失"的阶段演变特征。③乡村地域人—地—业协调发展时空演变格局是城镇化发展、农牧业活动强度、资源环境承载能力、产业经济发展、政策制度调控相互作用的结果,黄土高原乡村地域经历"高强度农牧业活动、资源环境矛盾突出、生态政策调控凸显、城镇化影响显著、农业去中心化加剧"等演变后人—地—业协调发展水平普遍降低。结果启示通过社会治理激发村民内生动力实现产业经济绿色转型发展是黄土高原乡村地域提高人—地—业协调水平的关键。

Absrtact:Based on the county-level rural data of the Loess Plateau,taking population,land and industry as the research objects,this paper used the coupling coordination degree model and geographical detector to explore the spatial-temporal evolution pattern and driving mechanism of the coordinated development of human land industry in rural areas from 1990 to 2015.The results show that:1) In the Loess Plateau,the rural population and cultivated land are decreasing,the development of industry is lagging behind,and the overall development level of the human-land-industry system is relatively low.2) On the whole,the rural humanland-industry system in the Loess Plateau presents a state of "high coupling and low coordination",and the coordination level shows a trend of "inverted n type".3) The spatial and temporal evolution pattern of the coordinated development of human land industry in rural areas of the Loess Plateau is the result of the interaction among urbanization development,the intensity of agricultural and animal husbandry activities,the carrying capacity of resources and environment,the development of industrial economy and the regulation and control of policies and systems.