相对价格效应,还是收入效应——论中国产业结构调整的驱动因素

Relative Price Effects or Income Effects: Research on the Driving Factors of Industrial Structure Adjustment

面对日益增强的资源环境约束,中国经济的高速增长遭遇瓶颈,而产业结构调整是实现经济转型发展的关键。本文引入非位似的固定替代弹性(CES)偏好,构建了三部门的一般均衡模型,从理论上分析了相对价格效应和收入效应与三次产业结构变动之间的内在关系。经验研究中,以1986-2015年全国经济统计数据为样本,利用似不相关回归(SUR)和蒙特卡洛模拟进行实证检验,比较了相对价格效应和收入效应对产业结构的驱动作用,发现中国产业结构变迁的相对收入效应在0.1左右,农产品相对于工业品的相对价格效应为-0.20,服务业相对于工业品的相对价格效应为0.02。来自不同时期的异质性检验显示,随着工业化进程的不断推进,相对价格效应和收入效应均有增强的趋势。

Industrial structure adjustment is the key in achieving the economic transformation and development facing the bottleneck of rapid economic growth in China. By introducing nonhomothetic Constant Elasticity of Substitution(CES) preferences, we present a three-sector growth model and analyze the inherent relations between relative price effects, income effects and sector structure change respectively in theory. Using data of Chinese economy over the period of 1986-2015, we use Seemingly Unrelated Regression(SUR) and Monte Carlo Simulation to calibrate parameters and simulate. Then, we quantitatively compare the driving factor role in industrial structure between relative price effects and income effects. We find that the relative price effects are more important than the income effects from the heterogeneity tests of different periods. However, the relative price effects gradually decline and the income effects have an increasing trend along with the process of industrialization.