电子商务促进了产业升级吗——基于世界银行2012年中国企业调查的证据

Does E-commerce Promote Industrial Upgrading? Evidence from the World Bank Chinese Enterprise Survey 2012

本文尝试从微观视角考察电子商务对产业升级的影响及传导机制,在构建产业升级微观评估指标的基础上,基于世界银行2012年中国企业调查数据开展实证分析。结果表明,电子商务对产业升级具有正向促进作用,即显著推进了企业的流程升级与产品升级,但其驱动产业升级的深度和质量有待进一步研究。在采用工具变量法与倾向得分匹配方法(PSM)控制内生性问题之后该结论依旧成立。另外,电子商务对产业升级的影响存在企业规模、所有制与区域异质性,对中小企业的正向促进作用大于大型企业,对民营企业的正向促进作用大于国有企业、对中西部企业的正向促进作用大于东部企业。进一步的机制检验表明,电子商务主要通过创新效应、重置效应和协同效应促进产业升级,成本效应则不构成有效的中介机制。本文的研究为理解电子商务驱动下我国新一轮产业升级提供了新解释,对于我国数字经济的发展具有重要的政策启示意义。

This paper studies the impact of e-commerce on industrial upgrading and its mechanism from a micro perspective. Based on the data of World Bank Chinese Enterprise Survey 2012, this paper constructs micro industrial upgrading evaluation indicators, and uses Probit, Logit and Tobit models for the empirical analysis. The results indicate that e-commerce has a positive effect on industrial upgrading. E-commerce significantly promotes the process upgrading and product upgrading of enterprises, but the depth and quality of industrial upgrading need to be improved. After controlling for endogeneity using IV and PSM methods, these conclusions remain robust. In addition, there exists heterogeneity in the upgrading effect caused by scales, ownerships and regions. Compared with large enterprises, state-owned enterprises and eastern enterprises, small-sized or medium-sized enterprises, private enterprises, central or western enterprises are industrially promoted to a more significant extent. Further mechanism tests show that e-commerce promotes the industrial upgrading mainly through innovation effects, reset effects and collaboration effects, while cost effects are not playing an effective intermediation role in the process. This paper provides a new understanding of the new round of industrial upgrading driven by e-commerce in China and has significant policy implications for the development of the digital economy.