政府“放养状态”下我国育龄女性二孩生育意愿的影响因素--基于CGSS 2015调查数据的Logistic分析

A Study on The Influencing Factors of Women of Child-bearing Age’s Desire to Have a Second Child under the Government’s "Stocking State" --Logistic Analysis Based on CGSS 2015 Survey Data

2016年,我国正式实行"全面二孩"政策,鼓励生育以缓解人口老龄化,但至今成效甚微。本研究基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2015年的数据,借助SPSS 25.0作为统计分析工具,建立二元Logistic回归模型对部分选取的数据进行回归分析,深入探讨我国政府"放养状态"下影响和制约育龄女性二孩生育意愿的内在动因与外在因素。结果表明,当前我国育龄女性二孩生育意愿主要受到户籍、受教育程度、家庭收入状况、家庭分工、健康状况、首婚时间、人均住房面积、养老责任界定等因素的影响。深入讨论各个因素的影响度,针对性地提出相关建议对策,可助推我国早日脱离"低生育率陷阱",实现人口均衡及可持续发展。

The government officially implemented the"universal two-child"policy in 2016 to encourage procreation to ease population aging,but it has had little success so far.Therefore,based on national general social survey(CGSS)data in 2015,with the aid of SPSS 25.0 statistical analysis as a tool,the binary Logistic regression model is established for regression analysis of some selected data,in order to do in-depth study to explore the influencing factors and restrictions of child-bearing age women’s second child fertility intention under the government"stocking state".The result showed that the intention of Chinese women of childbearing age to have a second child is mainly influenced by household registration,education level,family income,family division of labor,health status,time of first marriage,per capita housing area,definition of pension responsibility and other factors.In this study,the influence degree of each factor is discussed in depth,and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward to get rid of the"low fertility trap"as soon as possible,and to achieve a good effect of population balance and sustainable development.