全面停伐背景下黑龙江省林业产业结构变动趋势及优化调整方向研究

Study on the Changing Trend and Optimization Direction of Forestry Industry Structure in Heilongjiang Province Under the Background of Complete Suspension of Logging

在全面停止天然林商业性采伐背景下,采用灰色动态关联度分析方法,研究2010~2018年黑龙江省林业产业产值的结果表明:2014年全面停伐对黑龙江省林业产业结构产生影响,第一产业与林业产业总产值增长的动态关联度最大,第二产业关联度平均率增长幅度很小,甚至呈现负增长,表明停伐对第二产业的影响很大,而对第三产业的影响不大。在全面停伐后黑龙江省林业应该巩固第一产业,加快推进第二产业的转型升级,挖掘第三产业的潜力,促进林业产业持续健康发展。

In the context of the complete suspension of commercial logging of natural forests,the output value of the forestry industry in Heilongjiang Province from 2010 to 2018 is studied with Grey correlation analysis method.The results show that the complete suspension of logging in 2014 has impacts on the forestry industry structure of Heilongjiang Province;the dynamic correlation between the growth of the total output value of the forestry industry and the primary industry is the largest;the average growth rate of correlation with the secondary industry is very small,even showing a negative growth,indicating that the suspension of logging has a great impact on the secondary industry;it has little impact on the tertiary industry.After the complete suspension of logging,the forestry industry in Heilongjiang Province should consolidate the primary industry,accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the secondary industry,tap the potential of the tertiary industry,so as to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the forestry industry.