基于VAR模型的环境污染与经济增长的双向关系研究——以浙江省为例

Study on the Bidirectional Relationship between Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model——Take Zhejiang Province as an Example

本文基于浙江省1992—2017年经济增长与环境污染的相关数据,借助VAR模型,研究经济增长与环境污染相互影响的时间过程和动态轨迹。然后,运用方差分解法来分析浙江省经济增长与环境污染之间的相互影响重要程度,分析浙江省经济增长与环境污染之间的双向作用机制。研究发现:浙江省经济增长与环境污染之间存在双向作用机制,并且经济增长对环境的影响大于环境对经济增长的反作用。

Based on the data of economic growth and environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province from 1992 to 2017, this paper studies the time process and dynamic trajectory of the interaction between economic growth and environmental pollution with the help of VAR model. Then, the variance decomposition method is used to analyze the importance of interaction between economic growth and environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province, and to analyze the two-way action mechanism between economic growth and environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province. It is found that there is a two-way action mechanism between economic growth and environmental pollution in Zhejiang Province, and the impact of economic growth on the environment is greater than the adverse effect of environment on economic growth.