产业转型升级对劳动力需求的影响研究——基于广西2009—2018年面板数据分析

Research on the Impact of Industrial Transformation and Upgrading on Labor Demand--Based on the Panel Data of Guangxi from 2009 to 2018

产业结构对就业结构起着决定性的影响。本文运用实证分析法,基于2009—2018年广西三次产业产值及就业结构的面板数据,研究广西产业与就业结构偏离度及耦合效应,分析产业转型升级对劳动力需求的影响机理。结果表明,三次产业的就业人数比重与产值之间均存在耦合效应。产业转型升级会导致部分劳动力被替代,同时随着迭代效应及新兴行业的出现,会涌现新的劳动力需求,专业人才的需求量也随之上升。对此,本文提出了发展广西劳动力的建议,包括推动第二产业开展产业内转型升级、扩大职业技能教育、实行全周期人才跟踪管理、发展边贸物流人才和农产品基地人才等。

The industrial structure has a decisive influence on the employment structure.Based on the three panel data of Guangxi's industry,output value and employment structure from 2009 to 2018,this paper uses empirical analysis to study the degree of deviation and coupling effect of Guangxi's industry and employment structure,and analyze the mechanism of industrial transformation and upgrading on labor demand.The results show that there is a coupling effect between the proportion of employment in the three industries and the output value.Industrial transformation and upgrading will cause part of the labor force to be replaced.At the same time,with the iterative effect and the emergence of new industries,new labor demand will emerge,and the demand for professional talents will also increase.In this regard,this article puts forward suggestions for the development of Guangxi's labor force,including promoting the secondary industry to carry out industrial transformation and upgrading,expanding vocational skills education,implementing full-cycle talent tracking management,and cultivating border trade logistics talents and agricultural product base talents.