基于LMDI-I模型的中国电力行业碳排量分析

Carbon Emission Analysis of China's Power Industry Based on LMDI-I Model

电力行业是中国化石能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的最大贡献者。本文分析了2000—2017年电力行业二氧化碳排放总量。2000—2017年,二氧化碳排放量从19126.82×10^(4)t增加到55699.981×10^(4)t。本文选择LMDI-I方法进行研究。分解分析表明,在本文研究的7个因素中,经济规模是影响电力工业碳排放的最重要因素,用电规模和能源结构因素对碳排放的增加也起到了显著的作用。发电效率因子和发电耗电比对减少二氧化碳排放起着关键作用。最后,根据研究结果提出了减少二氧化碳排放的建设性建议。

The electric power industry is a largest contributor to fossil energ y consumption and carbon emissions in China.This paper analyzed the total electric power industry and industrial carbon emission from 2000 to 2017.During 2000-2017,the carbon emissions growing from 19126.82×10^(4) ton to 55699.981×10^(4) ton.The LMDI-I method was selected and used to conduct the study in this paper.Decomposition analysis shows that the economic scale is the most important factor that affecting the electric power industrial carbon emission among the seven factors studied in this paper,the effects of the electricity consumption scale and energy structural factors also plays a signif icant role in increasing carbon emission.The generating eff iciency factor and the ratio consumption to generation factor have played a key role in reducing carbon emissions.Finally,based on the results the constructive suggestions to reduce the carbon emissions has been put forward.