跨境物流发展对中国-东盟水果进出口的影响——基于贸易引力模型

The Impact of Cross-Border Logistics Development on China-ASEAN Fruits Import and Export——Based on the Trade Gravity Model

近年来,随着中国和东盟农产品贸易量的不断增加,水果作为农产品中需求量大、价值高的一类,在中国与东盟的贸易中占据了不容小觑的市场份额。而由于水果易腐败、运输损耗大等特点,跨境物流运输也成为水果贸易中至关重要的影响因素。世界银行颁布的物流绩效指数(LPI)从六大方面对各国物流绩效水平进行综合评估,能够全面、直接、客观地反映各国跨境物流的发展水平。论文选取物流绩效指数作为核心变量,结合拓展的贸易引力模型以及随机效应模型,对2007-2018年东盟十国的面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,跨境物流发展对我国与东盟的水果贸易往来起到至关重要的积极作用。此外,论文根据回归结果,对我国跨境物流行业的发展提出建议。

In recent years,with the continuous increase in the trade volume of agricultural products between China and ASEAN,as a category of agricultural products with high demand and high value,fruits have occupied a significant market share in the trade between China and ASEAN.However,due to the perishable nature of the fruit,large transportation loss and other characteristics,cross-border logistics transportation has become a crucial influencing factor in fruits trade.The logistics performance index(LPI)issued by the World Bank comprehensively evaluates the logistics performance level of each country from six aspects,which can comprehensively,directly and objectively reflect the development level of cross-border logistics of each country.This paper selects the logistics performance index as the core variable,combined with the expanded trade gravity model and random effect model,makes an empirical analysis on the panel data of ten ASEAN countries from 2007 to 2018.The results of the research show that the development of cross-border logistics plays a vital and active role in the fruits trade between China and ASEAN.In addition,according to the regression results,the paper puts forward suggestions for the development of cross-border logistics industry in China.