基于变点–算术失效强度减的设备维修质量评估

Assessing equipment maintenance quality based on change point-arithmetic reduction of failure intensity model

针对设备维修效果评估中存在的失效强度变点问题,给出了一个具有失效变点的算术失效强度减模型.该模型应用幂律模型平滑具有变点的失效强度,进而假设设备经历一次预防维修后的失效强度等于预防维修前的失效强度和一个当量之和.这个当量与预防维修前的失效强度和设备固有失效强度之差成一定比例,并以该比例评价预防维修质量.构建了基于最小二乘法的AIC准则, AICc准则和MTBF改进量指标评价模型的拟合优度.以巴士车辆的预防维修数据为例开展了案例研究.研究结果表明,变点–算术失效强度减模型不仅具有更优的拟合优度,而且还具有与MTBF改进量最小的欧氏距离.

Equipment failure intensity may have failure points in the evaluation of equipment maintenance effect.An arithmetic failure intensity reduction model with failure change point is provided.The proposed model uses the power-law model to smooth the failure intensity with change point.Then the failure intensity will change after a preventive maintenance activity,while the amount of change can be proportional to the difference of the failure intensity between the expected and latest failure intensity.The proportion is used to quantify the maintenance quality.The AIC criterion,AICc criterion and the improvement of MTBF are established to evaluate the goodness of fit of the proposed model.A case study based on the real-world bus fleet failure data is presented.The results show that the proposed model not only has better goodness of fit,but also has the smallest Euclidean distance from the improvement of MTBF.