经济增长模式对经常账户差额变动的影响及应对研究

Research on the Impact of Economic Growth Mode on the Change of Current Account Balance and Its Countermeasures

经常账户差额的稳定对于一国的涉外经济平稳发展有着重要的影响。近年来,我国经常账户差额逐步趋于稳定,涉外经济发展基本平稳,但外部环境变化、全球疫情蔓延和贸易摩擦等因素对我国经常账户差额的影响冲击日益显现。本文梳理了我国经常账户及各组成部分的变化情况,并实证研究了不同经济增长变量对经常账户变动的影响。通过分析,得出不同经济变量对经常账户差额影响的方向和程度,并针对研究结论提出了应对未来经常账户波动的政策建议。

The stability of the current account balance has an important impact on the steady development of China's foreign-related economy.In recent years,China's current account balance has gradually stabilized,and foreign-related economic development has been basically stable.However,the impact of changes in the external environment,the spread of the global epidemic,and trade frictions on China's current account balance has become increasingly apparent.This article sorts out the changes in China's current account and its components,and empirically studies the effects of different economic growth variables on current account changes.Through analysis,the degree of the influence of different economic variables on the current account balance is obtained,and policy recommendations for dealing with future current account fluctuations are put forward based on the research conclusions.