中国米市百年三大变化及前瞻

Three Big Changes in the Past 100 Years and Prospects in China’s Rice Market

水稻是全球三大主粮中唯一起源于华夏大地的作物。百年来,水稻生产、稻米市场和稻米在人们日常经济生活中的地位发生了重大变化。本文从上述几个方面进行了大跨度比较分析和探讨。与百年前相比,我国人口增加了近10亿,但人均粮食占有量大幅增加,年人均粮食占有量从1920年前后的265 kg上升到2020年的440 kg左右,这是国民经济迅速发展的基础;稻米市场规模扩大了数十倍,仓储物流已跻身世界前列;稻米消费持续扩大,用百斤稻米占人均收入比例测算居民生活提高程度,1921年、1949年,百斤米占上海普通工人月工资的50%左右,1980年百斤米占全国职工月均工资降至29%,2020年又降至13%。笔者对稻米市场存在问题和未来前景做出预判,指出未来在粮食问题上仍应坚持实事求是,不得有半点浮夸和弄虚作假,这也应是一条红线。农业和粮食是中国的经济基础,是衡量社会进步与否的天然尺度。中国共产党从1923年首次提出在农村减租减息主张,始终重视农业和粮食问题,经过百年艰难曲折而取得的成绩来之不易,需加倍珍惜。

Rice is one of the few staple crops originated in China.In the past hundred years,rice production,rice market and rice status in daily economic life have changed in varying degrees.A long-time comparative analysis and discussion from these aspects were conducted.Despite population has grew 1 billion over a hundred years,the per capita share of grain increased from 265 kg in 1921 up to 440 kg in 2020,which is the base for the booming national economy.The rice market has expanded dozens of times,and the warehouse logistics has been at the top of the world.The rice consumption has continued to grow.If the proportion of rice in per capita income was used to measure the improvement of residents’living standards,it accounted for about 50% of the monthly income of an average worker in Shanghai in 1921 and 1949,but it fell to 29% in 1980 and furtherly down to 13% in 2020.Moreover,the existing problems and future prospects of rice market were predicted.It should also be a red line that we should still adhere to seeking truth from facts in dealing with the issue of rice in the future,and should not exaggerate or deceive at all.It alos points out that agriculture and food are the foundation of China’s economy and the natural yardstick for measuring social progress.Since 1923,when the Communist Party of China first proposed reducing rural rent and interest rates for peasants,it has always attached great importance to the issues of agriculture and food.What we have achieved in the past century has not come easily and should be cherished.