蒙哥汗攻蜀撤军后的骨牌效应

Domino Effect after Mongke Khan’s War against Sichuan and Withdrawal afterward

1257年,蒙哥汗兵分四路进攻南宋以图统一全国,并亲率西路军攻蜀。1259年2月起,西路军进攻合州钓鱼城,久攻不下。7月,蒙哥汗命殒钓鱼城,蒙军北还。蒙哥汗身死及撤军产生了一系列的串联事件,形成多米诺骨牌效应,对宋蒙(元)局势影响深远。一阶传导引发了蒙古王位之争与前线蒙军撤退,促使双方出现新统治集团;二阶传导使得宋蒙(元)在博弈中出现和缓期,为双方谋求发展提供历史舞台;三阶传导为双方理政结果引起的实力变化,并在历史合力的作用下产生了新的局势:忽必烈登上蒙古汗位后,推行“汉法”,促进蒙古国力大幅度提升;南宋由于外部压力缓和,安于守势,又权臣当政,社会危机四伏,导致国家进一步衰弱,加速了灭亡的进程。

In 1257,Mongke Khan attacked Southern Song Dynasty in four directions in an attempt to unify the whole country.And he himself led the western army to attack Sichuan.From February,1259,the western army attacked Fishing City,Hezhou,but failed.In July,Mongke Khan Died in Hezhou and the Mongolian army returned to the North.The Mongke Khan’s death and withdrawal brought about a series of events and formed the domino effect,which exerted the profound influence on Song and Mongolia.Their first-order transmission resulted in contending for Mongolian Khan and retreat from the front and in the appearance of new ruling groups in both sides.The second-order transmission was the fact that there appeared the calm period during the war which provided opportunity for the development of both sides.And the third-order transmission laid in the change of strength of both sides and the appearance of the new situation:after mounting to the throne,Kublai carried out the“Han laws”which improved the national strength greatly.And due to the reduction of external pressure,Southern Song Dynasty took the defense policy,and power ministers were in power.This led to the serious social crisis and further decline of the country and sped up its death in the end.