基于Cox模型的中国高新技术企业生存分析

The Survival Analysis of Chinese High-tech EnterprisesBased on Cox Model

基于Cox回归模型,以2010-2018年高新技术企业数量为样本数据,分析经济发展、社会环境、创新行为、创新强度、企业规模、融资约束、政府行为、技术水平等因素对高新技术企业生存的影响作用。研究发现:经济发展在鼓励更多企业进入市场的同时也加剧了竞争,引发了企业更为高频的淘汰率。但是,政策因素在经济发展与企业生存之间起着调节作用,政府通过宏观调控促使经济作用力朝有利于企业生存的方向进行,当面对经济运行中的突出矛盾时,行政力量作为一种壁垒对企业退出产生了阻碍;社会环境的进步充盈了资金来源,为企业提供了更加完善的融资环境,有利于高新技术企业获取资金资助提升其生存能力,但社会环境影响下企业资金增量所带来的组织结构赘余在一定程度上抑制了企业生存能力;创新行为有助于企业生存,然而创新活动未能给企业带来高回报率,创新的增强力度低于投入的增加,低销售值使企业无法弥补创新活动中的投入,导致企业高死亡率;规模较大的企业可以通过更高的技术水平增进企业生存。

Based on Cox regression model and taking the number of high-tech enterprises from 2010 to 2018 as sample data,the influences of economic development,social environment,innovation behavior,innovation intensity,the scale of enterprise,financing constraint,government behavior,technology level and other factors on the survival of high-tech enterprises are analyzed.The research finds that economic development not only encourages more enterprises to enter the market,but also intensifies the competition and triggers a more frequent elimination rate of enterprises.However,policy factors play a regulatory role between economic development and the survival of enterprises.Through macro-control,the government pushes the economic forces towards the direction which is conducive to enterprise survival.In the face of prominent contradictions in economic operation,administrative force,as a kind of barrier,hinders enterprises from exiting.The progress of social environment has replenished the source of capital and provided a more perfect financing environment for enterprises,which is conducive for high-tech enterprises to obtain financial support and improve their viability.However,under the influence of social environment,the redundant organizational structure brought by the increase of enterprise capital has to some extent inhibited the viability of enterprises.Innovation behavior is conducive to the survival of enterprises,but innovation activities fail to bring high returns to enterprises.The enhancement of innovation is lower than the increase of investment.Low sales value makes it impossible for enterprises to make up for the investment in innovation activities,leading to high mortality rate.Larger firms can improve their survival through higher levels of technology.