未来相对海平面变化对山东沿海港口的影响

The influence of future relative sea level change on Shandong coastal ports

以山东省沿海港口为研究对象,采用基于IPCC第五次评价中RCP8.5情景的渤海、黄海海平面上升速率数据和山东省沿海地区地壳垂直运动速率数据,估算各港区自2019年到2100年相对海平面上升数据,获得以下研究结果:滨州港为0.956 m,东营港为0.794 m,潍坊港为0.47 m,龙口港为0.308 m,日照港为0.181 m,蓬莱港为0.143 m,烟台西港、烟台芝罘湾港区、威海港和青岛港均为0.14 m。结果表明,(1)相对海平面上升增大了港口航道的最大通行能力,其中,东营港、潍坊港、龙口港和滨州港最大通行能力绝对增加量大,分别为3.97×10^(4)t、3.5×10^(4)t、1.54×10^(4)t和1.54×10^(4)t;滨州港、东营港、潍坊港和龙口港相对增加量大,分别为51.21%、39.7%、35%和10.27%。(2)相对海平面上升使碎波线更接近防波堤,其中,滨州港、东营港和潍坊港,碎波线向防波堤移动距离大,分别为2867 m、1588 m和940 m。(3)相对海平面上升增大防波堤越浪量,其中,滨州港防波堤、东营港北防波堤和潍坊港中港区防波堤越浪量增长率高,分别为34.32%、34.17%和32.88%。(4)滨州港、东营港、潍坊港和龙口港应适时增大进、出港口轮船的最大吨位,以充分利用增大的最大通行能力的条件;滨州港、东营港和潍坊港应适时抛石或安装扭王字块来加固防波堤,以应对碎波线不断接近,激浪流冲击增强的不利影响,防止防波堤遭受破坏;滨州港应增高防波堤胸墙1 m以上,东营港北防波堤和潍坊港中港区防波堤应增加防波堤胸墙,高度分别在0.8 m以上和0.5 m以上,以防止越浪量增大对港池环境的干扰。研究结果和结论可为未来山东省沿海港口建设提供参考。

Using the sea level rise rate data of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea based on the RCP8.5 scenario in the Fifth IPCC evaluation and the crustal vertical movement rate data of coastal areas of Shandong Province,this paperestimated the relative sea level rise of each port area in Shandong Province from 2019 to 2100,and obtained the following results:Binzhou Port is 0.956 m,Dongying Port is 0.794 m,Weifang Port is 0.47 m,Longkou Port is 0.308 m,Rizhao Port is 0.181 m,Penglai Port is 0.143 m,Yantai West Port,Yantai Zhifu Bay Port area,Weihai Port and Qingdao Port are all 0.14 m.The results show that,(1)relative sea level rise increases the maximum capacity of port waterway.The absolute increase of the maximum capacity of Dongying Port,Weifang Port,Longkou Port and Binzhou Port are 3.97×10^(4) t,3.5×10^(4) t,1.54×10^(4) t and 1.54×10^(4) t,respectively.Binzhou Port,Dongying Port,Weifang Port and Longkou Port have relative large increase of 51.21%,39.7%,35% and 10.27%,respectively.(2)Relative sea level rise brings the breaking wave line closer to the breakwater.In Binzhou Port,Dongying Port and Weifang Port,the breaking wave line moves a great distance towards the breakwater,which are 2867 m,1588 m and 940 m respectively.(3)Relative sea level rise increases the amount of overtopping.In Binzhou Port breakwater,Dongying Port north breakwater and Weifang Port Zhonggang breakwater area,the growth rates of breakwater wave overtopping discharge are 34.32%,34.17% and 32.88% respectively.(4)In Binzhou Port,Dongying Port,Weifang Port and Longkou Port,the maximum tonnage of ships entering and leaving the ports should be increased timely so as to make full use of the increasedmaximum capacity.In Binzhou Port,Dongying Port and Weifang Port,riprap or Torsional wang block should be used to reinforce breakwater in time,so as to cope with the effects of constantbreaking wave line approaching and surf impact increasing,to prevent breakwater from being damaged.In Binzhou Port,the breakwater parapet shall be increased by more than 1 m,and the parapets in the north breakwater of Dongying Port and the breakwater of middle port area of Weifang Port shall be added to more than 0.8 m and 0.5 m,respectively,in order to prevent the disturbance of the harbor basin environment caused by the increase of wave overtopping.The research results and conclusions may provide guidance for the future coastal port construction in Shandong Province.