双循环新发展格局下中国内陆物流经济国际化风险及应对的实证研究

Empirical research on the risks of internationalization ofChina's inland logistics economy and coping strategiesunder the pattern of dual circulation

在国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,中国内陆地区的物流经济国际化建设显得尤为重要。为应对物流经济国际化建设进程中的风险管理问题,通过选取地处内陆的西安作为实证研究对象,把与物流经济发展紧密联系的西安国家物流枢纽建设风险划分为4个一级指标和13个二级指标,采用专家评分,构建AHP模糊综合评价模型,使用熵权法对数据进行归一化处理,对物流枢纽建设的风险进行全面识别、综合评估,探讨西安的物流经济国际化风险及应对战略。研究认为,西安物流经济国际化发展进程中的物理网络、业务网络、管理网络、环境网络分别处于较低、较低、较低、一般等不同程度的风险范围;在双循环新发展格局下,区域产业结构将逐步得到重塑,中国内陆地区的物流经济国际化发展程度将得到大幅提升,作为“西北与西南地区物流通道”的关键连接节点城市,西安要加强国家物流枢纽建设的全面风险管理,建立亚欧国际物流通关协调机制,完善国际物流服务业的匹配工作,进而整合全国物流资源,集结中转大宗货物的中心平台,支持优势企业通过联合或参股、收购、兼并等方式延伸全球服务网络,助力内陆物流经济国际化建设,进而全面服务国家战略需求,打造内陆循环经济开放新高地。

Under the new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation,the internationalization of logistics economy in China's inland areas becomes particularly important.In order to deal with the problem of risk management in the process of internationalization of logistics economy,this paper selects the inland city Xi'an as the research object,classifies the risk factors of Xi'an's national logistics hub construction closely related to the development of logistics economy into four first-level indicators and 13 second-level indicators,uses the Experts Grading Method to build the AHP Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model,applies the entropy weight method to conduct normalization processing on the data,comprehensively identifies and evaluates the risks in the construction of international logistics hub,and discusses the internationalization risks and coping strategies of Xi'an logistics economy.The research shows that the physical network,business network,management network and environmental network in the process of Xi'an logistics economic internationalization are in the range of low,low,low and general risks respectively.Therefore,under the new development pattern of dual circulation,the regional industrial structure will be gradually reshaped,and the degree of internationalization of logistics economy in China's inland areas will be greatly improved.As the key city connecting the"logistics channels in northwest and southwest regions",it is necessary for Xi'an to strengthen the comprehensive risk management in the logistics hub construction,establish the coordination mechanism for Eurasian international logistics and customs clearance,improve the corresponding infrastructure for the international logistics service industry,integrate the logistical resources from across the country,concentrate the central platforms for bulk cargo transit,support advantageous enterprises to expand their global service network through forming alliance,equity participation,acquisition,merging,etc.,facilitate the construction of internationalization of inland logistics economy,and then comprehensively serve the needs of national strategy and build a new and open highland of inland circular economy.