中国杂粮生产及贸易形势展望

Prospect of Production and Trade of China's Miscellaneous Grains

杂粮是干旱半干旱、老少边穷地区的重要粮食作物和经济来源,在保障粮食安全、促进种植业结构调整、改善居民饮食结构方面具有重要作用。对杂粮生产和贸易形势进行研究,有助于把握杂粮的发展脉络,对促进杂粮产业发展具有现实意义。利用国家统计局和联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade)数据对杂粮生产和贸易形势进行分析,研究发现:在生产方面,杂粮的生产面临下降趋势,谷子、高粱、大麦、绿豆和红小豆等品种的产量约占杂粮产量的一半,杂粮生产主要集中在内蒙古、云南、吉林、山西和河北,受经济发展水平提高和消费者健康意识增强的影响,杂粮的消费需求预计会有所增加,受种植业结构调整的影响,杂粮产量预计稳定增长,生产向优势产区集中,生产布局进一步优化;在贸易方面,杂粮进口自2013年以来迅速攀升,出口自2009年以来呈下降趋势,其中杂粮进口以谷物类杂粮为主,出口以杂豆类杂粮为主,进口品种集中,出口品种多元化,杂粮总体处于净进口状态。受国内畜牧业和玉米产业发展的影响,短期内杂粮进口预计仍保持较高水平。

Miscellaneous grains are important food crops and economic sources in arid and semi-arid areas,and old revolutionary base areas in China,which play an important role in ensuring food security,promoting the adjustment of the planting industry structure,and improving the diet structure of residents.Research on the production and trade situation of miscellaneous grains is helpful to grasp the development context of miscellaneous grains and has practical significance for promoting the miscellaneous grains industry.The situation of coarse cereals production and trade was analyzed by using the data of National Bureau of Statistics and UN Comtrade database.It was found that:in terms of production,the production of miscellaneous grains is facing a downward trend,millet,sorghum,barley,mung bean and adzuki bean account for about half of the output of miscellaneous grains,the production of miscellaneous grains is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,Jilin,Shanxi and Hebei,and affected by the improvement of economic development level and consumers'health awareness,the consumption demand of miscellaneous grains was forecasted to increase,and affected by the adjustment of planting structure,the output of miscellaneous grains was forecasted to increase steadily,the production was expected to concentrate in advantageous producing areas,and the production layout was expected to be further optimized.In terms of trade,the import of miscellaneous grains has risen rapidly since 2013,while the export has shown a downward trend since 2009,and the import of miscellaneous grains was mainly cereals,while the export was mainly miscellaneous beans,among them,the import varieties were concentrated and the export varieties were diversified,and the miscellaneous grains were generally in a net import state.Affected by the development of domestic animal husbandry and corn industry,it was forecasted that the import of miscellaneous grains would remain at a relatively high level in the short term.