基于历史丰歉气象影响指数的湖南油菜产量动态预报

Dynamic Forecast of Rape Yield in Hunan Province Based on Historical Weather Impact Index

利用湖南油菜播种后历史年(1994—2009年)与预报年(2009—2019年)逐日最高温度、最低温度、降雨量和日照时数及生育期等数据,计算油菜播种后的积温、标准化降雨量、累积日照时数等要素,采用欧式距离和相关系数法计算预报年气象要素与历史上任意一年同一时段同类气象要素的差异,得到综合诊断指数;根据气温、降水、日照时数等要素的综合诊断指数确定历史类似年型,采用平均、大概率等方法分析类似年型油菜产量丰歉气象影响指数,筛选确定准确率高的方法进行油菜产量动态预报。2010—2019年预报检验结果表明,建立的湖南油菜产量动态预报方法的平均预报准确率在95.7%以上,其中11月30日和12月31日的预报准确率最高,为98.1%。该研究建立的湖南油菜产量动态预报方法准确率较高,能够满足湖南油菜产量预报服务的需要。

Based on the historical years(1994–2009)and the forecast years(2009–2019)data on daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration and growth period after sowing of rapeseed in Hunan Province,the accumulated temperature,standardized precipitation,accumulated sunshine duration and other factors after sowing of rape were calculated.The Euclidean distance and the correlation coefficient method were used to calculate the difference of meteorological factors over the same period between the forecast year and any historical year,and the comprehensive diagnostic index was obtained;according to the comprehensive diagnostic index of the factors like temperature,precipitation,and sunshine duration,the historically similar years were determined.The averaging method and the large probability method were used to analyze the meteorological impact index of rape yield in similar years,and the method with high accuracy was selected to predict rape yield dynamically.The prediction test results of 2010-2019 show that the average prediction accuracy of the established dynamic prediction method for rape yield in Hunan is more than 95.7%,and the prediction accuracy of November 30 and December 31 is the highest,up to 98.1%.The accuracy of the dynamic prediction method of Hunan rape yield is high,which can meet the needs of rape yield prediction service in Hunan Province.