广东省湛江市水稻台风灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Rice Typhoon Disaster in Zhanjiang City of Guangdong Province

水稻是南方地区最重要的粮食作物,以其为研究对象进行台风灾害风险评估具有重要意义。基于自然灾害风险的形成机制,综合考虑发灾场敏感性、致灾力危险性和承灾体暴露性等三个方面10个指标,建立评估指标体系,运用突变级数法构建评估模型,以1998—2018年影响湛江市台风资料为基础数据,进行水稻台风灾害风险等级评估。结果表明:湛江市水稻台风灾害承灾体暴露性呈现出中部和北部高的特征;致灾力危险性分布呈现出东部和南部高的特征;发灾场敏感性呈现出东部和中部高的特征。水稻台风灾害风险高的区域在湛江市中部和北部地区,风险指数为0的区域主要分布在徐闻县中部地区、雷州市中部和南部、遂溪县中部地区。研究结果可以为地级市台风灾害的分级风险管理提供依据。

Rice is the most important food crop in South China,and typhoon disaster risk assessment has important sense which takes it as the research object.Based on the formation mechanism of natural disaster risk,taking the sensitivity of disaster occurred place,hazard of disaster force and exposure of disaster body into comprehensive consideration by 10 index,the catastrophe progression method is used to construct a cascade catastrophe model for risk assessment of rice typhoon disaster.According to typhoon data of affecting counties and districts in Zhanjiang city in the period 1998—2018,the risk level of typhoon disaster was assessed.Research results showed that:In the risk assessment of Zhanjiang rice typhoon disaster,the exposure of rice typhoon disaster is mainly high in the central and northern regions and the hazard distribution of typhoon disaster is high in the east and south.The sensitivity of typhoon disaster occurred place presents certain regularity,which is high in the center and east.The areas with high risk of rice typhoon are distributed in the north and central part of Zhanjiang city.The regions with a risk index of 0 are mainly distributed in the middle of Xuwen county,the middle and south of Leizhou city and the middle of Suixi county.The results can provide a basis for the classified risk management of typhoon disasters in prefecture level cities.