一种适用于山地地区的地震灾害风险评估方法——以四川宝兴县为例

Study on Quantitative Assessment and Classification Method of Earthquake Disaster risk:A Case Study of Baoxing County

地震灾害风险的形成是自然环境与人类社会共同作用的结果,这里的“灾”强调的不仅是地震本身,还包括地震引发的次生灾害。而地震引发次生灾害的类型丰富多样,不同场景引发的次生灾害类型不同。以山地地区为场景,基于地震危险性概率分析方法成果,考虑山地地质灾害的影响,给出以建筑物破坏、人员伤亡、经济损失和地震灾害综合风险为标度的风险评估结果。并以四川省宝兴县为例开展了实验,实验结果表明,在Ⅷ度基本设防烈度下,灵关镇的地震灾害风险处于高风险水平,永富乡和明礼乡处于低风险水平。该研究能掌握地震灾害风险程度及其空间分布状况,为政府部门有针对性地采取地震灾害风险防治措施提供依据。

The formation of earthquake disaster risk is the result of the interaction of natural environment and human society.The“disaster”here emphasizes not only the earthquake itself,but also the secondary disaster caused by the earthquake.The types of secondary disasters caused by earthquakes are rich and diverse.The types of secondary disasters caused by different regional scenarios are different.In this paper,taking mountainous area as the scene,based on the results of probability method of earthquake risk analysis,considering the impact of geological disasters in mountainous areas,the risk assessment results are given with the scale of building damage,casualties,economic loss and comprehensive risk of earthquake disaster.Taking Baoxing County as an example,the experimental results show that under the basic fortification intensity ofⅧdegree,the risk of earthquake disaster in Lingguan town is at a high level,and Yongfu Township and Mingli township are at a low level.This study can grasp the degree of earthquake disaster risk and its spatial distribution,and provide the basis for government departments to take targeted measures to prevent and control earthquake disaster risk.