基于“三维空间面板”的避难场所规模均等性研究——以天津市中心城区为例

Research on the Equality of Evacuation Area Scale Based on“Three-dimensional Space Panel”——Take Tianjin's Downtown Area as an Example

防灾避难场所布局存在着场地规模不足、与居民分布不相协调,各区域人均规模差别较大等问题,在避难人口测算时主要根据常住人口,使测算人口与实际需要避难人口之间存在一定差异。为保证居民均等避难,提出防灾避难场所规模测算的“时间—空间—规模三维空间面板模型”。在规模测算时,根据人口时空变化规律,利用大数据技术对城市人口规模测算,同时依据建筑综合抗灾能力和人均避难场所面积,对各区域不同时段避难人数及不同等级避难场所测算,保证各区域避难场地满足居民需求。“三维空间面板模型”构建不仅为天津市中心城区这种在各行政区均衡数量布局避难场所的城市提供布局优化基础,也为其它城市避难场所布局优化提供避难疏散人口及避难场地规模测算新方法,实现各区域居民避难规模均等性,满足所有居民避难疏散需求。

There are insufficient site scale,inconsistent with the distribution of residents,and large differences to the layout of disaster prevention and refuge places in the per capita scale of each region,there is a certain difference between the estimated population and the actual population that needs to evacuate because it is mainly based on the permanent population to the evacuation population.In order to ensure equal evacuation needs of residents,it is proposed to the“time-space-scale three-dimensional spatial panel model”for the scale of disaster prevention shelters.When calculating the scale,according to the law of population time and space changes,it is used to calculate the urban population size to the big data technology.At the same time,according to the comprehensive disaster resistance of the building and the per capita area of shelters,the number of evacuees are calculated in different periods and the scale of different levels of shelters in each region to ensure that each Regional refuge sites meet the needs of residents.The construction of the“three-dimensional panel model”not only provides a basis for layout optimization for a city that has a balanced number of refuge places in various administrative districts such as the central city of Tianjin,but also provides a new method for evacuation population and refuge site scale calculation for the optimization of the layout of refuge places in other cities.Achieve the equalization of the evacuation scale of residents in all regions,and meet the evacuation needs of all residents.