基于Moran’s I的安徽省太湖县耕地质量时空格局分析

Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Cultivated Land Quality Based on Moran’s I in Taihu County,Anhui Province

[目的]探究耕地质量时空格局演变规律,为各级土地管理部门进行耕地分区利用与保护提供决策依据,为提升耕地质量和优化土地空间布局提供参考。[方法]基于安徽省太湖县2008年及2018年耕地质量等级评价成果,以ArcGIS和GeoDa为平台,利用时间序列法和空间自相关分析等研究方法,分别从全局自相关和局部自相关两方面分析太湖县10 a跨度的耕地质量时空格局变异情况,划分制定4类分区管理方案:限制建设区、综合改良区、适度改良区和重点整治区,并有针对地提出符合实际情况的耕地管护措施。[结果]①2008—2018年,太湖县总耕地面积增加6474.45 hm^(2);②2008年及2018年全局自相关Moran’s I分别为:0.419478,0.288328,Z得分分别为:8.677693,5.527830;③在空间分布上太湖县耕地质量空间正相关类型多以“组团”聚类形式出现,负相关类型无明显集中区域。[结论]太湖县10 a时间跨度上耕地面积增加了6474.45 hm^(2),耕地资源的10 a平均变化率P=1.65%,耕地质量平均等级提升1.68等;在空间分布上呈显著空间自相关特征和空间聚集特征。

[Objective]The evolution of temporal and spatial patterns of cultivated land quality was explored in order to provide a basis for decision-making by land management departments at all levels to rationally use and protect cultivated land,and to provide a reference for improving the quality of cultivated land and optimizing the spatial layout of land.[Methods]Based on the evaluation results of arable land quality in Taihu County,Anhui Province in 2008 and 2018,research methods such as time series methods and spatial autocorrelation analysis with ArcGIS and GeoDa platforms were used to analyze the variation in temporal and spatial patterns of cultivated land quality in Taihu County over a ten-year period from global autocorrelation and local autocorrelation.Four types of zoning management plans:restricted construction areas,comprehensive improvement areas,moderate improvement areas,and key remediation areas were devised and formulated,as well as management and protection measures that would meet actual conditions for cultivated land.[Results]①From^(2)008 to 2018,the total arable land area of Taihu County increased by 6474.45 hectares;②The coefficients of global autocorrelation Moran’s I in 2008 and 2018 were 0.419478 and 0.288328,respectively,and the Z scores were 8.677693 and 5.527830,respectively;③The positive correlation types of cultivated land quality in Taihu County mostly appeared in the form of cluster,while the negative correlation types had no obvious concentrated areas.[Conclusion]The area of cultivated land in Taihu County increased by 6474.45 hectares over the ten-year period.The average annual change rate(P)of cultivated land resources was 1.65%,and the average grade of cultivated land quality increased by 1.68.The spatial distribution showed significant spatial autocorrelation characteristics and space gathering features.