基于系统动力学的区域物流枢纽经济发展影响程度研究

Research on the Influence of Economic Development of Regional Logistics Hubs Based on System Dynamics

物流枢纽对于区域经济的发展具有十分重要的促进作用。文章通过构建区域物流枢纽发展系统动力学模型,基于宁波市2005-2018年数据,使用Vensim PLE软件进行仿真并分析,探讨物流自增长能力、经济、产业结构对宁波市区域物流枢纽发展的影响程度,剖析经济发展、产业结构等变化下宁波市物流业所面临的问题。研究表明,物流自增长能力、经济发展、第一产业、第二产业、第三产业每变动1%时,引起物流整体水平分别变动1.1%、0.7%、1.2%、1.4%、0.8%左右。且目前物流供给水平整体高于物流需求水平;经济变化对各运输方式水平变化影响明显;若宁波市着重发展第一产业,则物流水平会低于现有水平且影响显著,第三产业对物流业的带动作用未完全释放。

The logistics hubs play an important role in promoting regional economic development.By constructing the system dynamics model of regional logistics hub development,based on the data of Ningbo from 2005 to 2018,using Vensim PLE software for simulation and analysis,this paper discusses the influence of logistics self-growth ability,economy and industrial structure on the development of Ningbo regional logistics hub,and analyzes the problems faced by Ningbo logistics industry under the changes of economic development and industrial structure.Research shows that every 1%change of logistics self-growth ability,economic development,primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry causes the overall level of logistics to change about 1.1%,0.7%,1.2%,1.4%and 0.8%resp ectively.At present,the overall logistics supply level is higher than the logistics demand level;economic change has a significant impact on the level of each mode of transportation;if Ningbo focuses on the development of the primary industry,the logistics level will be lower than the existing level and the impact is significant,and the driving force of the tertiary industry on the logistics industry will not be fully released.