双循环背景下经济高质量发展路径探究:日本的经验与启示

Research on the Path of High-quality Economic Growth in the Condition of Dual Circulation:Japan’s Experience and Enlightenment

在资本投入收益率下降、劳动力投入下滑的背景下,中国需要构筑国内国际双循环体系提升全要素生产率,推动实现经济高质量发展。运用国际经济学理论,构建技术进步、经济增长与双循环体系经济理论模型,通过经济模拟的方法,可以看出双循环体系构建的关键在于扩大国内市场规模。分析日本在构建双循环体系领域的尝试,不难发现其外循环成功,而内循环失败。错误的宏观经济政策引发泡沫经济,造成日本企业投资以及居民消费的长期低迷。中国应吸取日本的经验教训,加强政府引领,推动国内国际双循环体系平稳发展。

Under the background of declining return on capital input and declining labor input,China needs to build a pattern of domestic and international circulation to enhance total factor productivity and promote high-quality economic development.This paper,adopting the theory of international economics,constructs the theoretical model of technological progress,economic growth and dual circulation system.Through economic simulation it finds that the key to build the dual systemlies in expanding the scale of domestic market.By analyzing Japan's attempt to build a dual circulation system,it is not difficult to find that the external circulation works well while the internal oneruns opposite.The wrong macroeconomic policy has triggered a bubble economy,resulting in a long-term downturn in enterprise investment and household consumption.China should learn from Japan's experience,strengthen government guidance so as to promote the stable development of dualcirculation.