地方政府债务风险会加剧区域性金融风险聚集吗

Will Local Government Debt Risks Aggravate Regional Financial Risks Aggregation?

基于2008—2018年我国30个省份的面板数据,从显性、隐性与综合债务三个角度测算地方政府债务风险,运用空间杜宾模型(SDM)研究了地方政府债务风险对区域性金融风险的外溢与聚集作用。研究发现:我国区域性金融风险呈现高低聚集分布特征,东部地区最高,西部地区次之,中部地区最低;三类地方政府债务风险均能显著推高辖区内区域性金融风险水平;地方政府隐性与综合债务风险上升能显著降低辖区间的区域性金融风险水平,使辖区间区域性金融风险向辖区内转移聚集;进一步研究发现,这种现象产生的原因是地方政府财力下降后,区域性金融风险在区域内进行自我积累,并引致辖区间区域性金融风险转移。因此,建议从三个方面入手治理区域性金融风险:一是重点关注东部地区的区域性金融风险聚集问题;二是规范地方政府举债行为,彻底切断隐性债务产生途径,逐步消化隐性债务存量;三是进一步释放地方政府财权,促进地方政府财权与事权相匹配。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2018,this paper measures the local government debt risks from three aspects of explicit,implicit and comprehensive debts.It also uses spatial Durbin model(SDM)to study the spillover and aggregation effect of local government debt risks on the regional financial risks.The results show that China’s regional financial risks present a significant feature of high-low aggregation distribution,with the highest in the eastern region,followed by the western region,and the lowest in the central region.The three types of local government debt risks can all significantly drive up the level of regional financial risks in the jurisdiction.The increase of the implicit and comprehensive debt risks of local governments can significantly lower the level of regional financial risks in the adjacent areas,making the regional financial risks in the adjacent areas transfer to the inside of the jurisdiction.The results of further study indicate that the reason for this phenomenon is that when the financial resources of the local governments decline,the regional financial risks accumulate by themselves within the regions and lead to the transfer of regional financial risks among the neighboring regions.Therefore,it is suggested to govern the regional financial risks from the following three aspects:firstly,to pay close attention to the regional financial risk aggregation in the eastern region;secondly,to regulate the borrowing behaviors of local governments,completely cut off the way of implicit borrowing,and gradually digest the stock of implicit debts;finally,to further release the financial power of local governments and promote the matching of financial power and administrative power of local governments.