环境因子对我国卵形硬蜱适生区分布的影响研究

Effects of environmental factors on the distribution of suitable habitats of Ixodes ovatus in China

目的探索影响卵形硬蜱适生区分布的环境因子及未来环境变化对卵形硬蜱适生区分布的影响。方法通过文献检索获取我国已知卵形硬蜱分布点数据,结合环境因子数据,运用最大熵模型对卵形硬蜱适生区分布进行模拟,并根据2050、2070年环境数据对卵形硬蜱适生区分布变化进行预测。结果目前我国卵形硬蜱适生区面积为311.0万km^(2),占国土面积的32.28%,主要集中在西南、西北地区;在筛选出的16个环境因子中,温度季节性变化标准差、年均降水量、海拔为影响卵形硬蜱适生区分布的主导环境因子,累计贡献率为76.5%;2050、2070年我国卵形硬蜱适生区分布呈向西北、东北扩大趋势,且高适生区占比增加。结论温和的气候、充足的降水及较高的海拔适宜卵形硬蜱生存,未来气候改变可能引起我国卵形硬蜱适生区分布范围扩大。

Objective To identify the environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of Ixodes ovatus,and to examine the effects of environmental changes on the distribution of suitable habitats of I.ovatus.Methods Data pertaining to the distribution of I.ovatus in China were captured by literature review.The distribution of suitable habitats of I.ovatus in China was simulated using the maximum entropy model with the environmental variable data and the I.ovatus distribution data.In addition,the potential distribution of suitable habitats of I.ovatus was predicted based on the 2050 and 2070 environmental data.Results The current suitable habitats of I.ovatus cover 3.11 million km^(2),accounting for 32.28%of the total land area of China,and they are mainly concentrated in southwestern and northwestern China.Among the screened 16 environmental factors,the standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature,average annual precipitation and altitude were predominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of I.ovatus,and these three variables contributed 76.5%to the distribution of suitable habitats of I.ovatus in China.The suitable habitats of I.ovatus were predicted to showing a tendency towards expansion to northwestern and northeastern China in 2050 and 2070,and the proportion of highly suitable habitats of I.ovatus was predicted to increase.Conclusions Moderate climate,adequate precipitation and high altitude are favorable for the survival of I.ovatus.Future climate changes may cause expansion of suitable habitats of I.ovatus in China.