“新克强指数”与贵州省经济增长关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between the"New Keqiang Index"and the Economic Growth of Guizhou Province

本文采用协整检验和VAR模型分析了“新克强指数”与贵州省经济增长的相互关系,研究发现,(1)贵州经济增长与能源消耗呈反向关系,说明贵州这几年对于绿色能源、节能减排的重视,贵州也随着中央政策向着可持续方向发展;(2)“新克强指数”3个指标与贵州经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,就业量、城镇居民收入的系数较小,这表明贵州省的经济发展还需要继续努力,还需要继续产业创新、技术革命;(3)经济增长对“新克强指数”的三个指标来说,前两项都保持着正向效应,后一项则是负向效应。说明经济增长的刺激对于就业量增加、城镇居民收入增多是正向的,贵州省的经济发展符合“新常态”下转型阶段;经济增长的冲击对能源消耗是负向的,说明能源消耗性已经不再适用于贵州经济的发展。

This paper uses cointegration test and VAR model to analyze the relationship between“new Keqiang index”and economic growth of Guizhou Province.The results show that,(1)there is a reverse relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Guizhou Province,which indicates that Guizhou has paid more attention to green energy,energy conservation and emission reduction in recent years,and Guizhou also develops in a sustainable direction with the central policy;(2)there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between the three indicators of the"new Keqiang index"and Guizhou's economic growth,and the coefficient of employment and urban residents'income is small,which indicates that Guizhou's economic development still needs to continue efforts,industrial innovation and technological revolution;(3)for the three indicators of"new Keqiang index",the first two keep positive effects,while the latter is negative.It shows that the stimulation of economic growth is positive for the increase of employment and income of urban residents,and the impact of economic growth on energy consumption is negative,which indicates that energy consumption is no longer suitable for the economic development of Guizhou.