基于DNGM(1,1)模型的沥青路面技术状况预测分析

Prediction and analysis on asphaltpavement technology conditions on the basis of DNGM (1,1)

基于灰色理论,建立基于白化微分方程参数直接估计法的灰色预测模型——DNGM(1,1)模型,通过实例分析,对某地沥青路面路面损坏状况指数PCI、路面行驶质量指数RQI、路面技术状况指数PQI进行预测分析,结果表明,与传统预测模型相比,DNGM(1,1)模型具有更高的精度和稳定性,能准确反映沥青路面的技术状况,可供相关工程技术人员参考。

Based on the grey theory,the paper establishes the grey theory prediction model for DNGM(1,1)on the basis of direction parameter estimating method of Albino differential equations.Through the field example analysis,it carries out a prediction and analysis for the asphalt pavement in terms of the pavement damage condition index PCI,pavement driving quality index RQI,pavement technology condition index PQI.Results show that:comparing to traditional prediction model,the DNGM(1,1)model has higher accuracy and stability,which can clearly reflect the technical conditions of asphalt pavement.Therefore,it will provide some guidance for relevant engineer technicians.