基于方差分析与多元线性回归模型的快速路事故成因分析及对策研究

Cause Analysis and Countermeasures of Expressway Accident Based on Analysis of Variance and Multiple Linear Regression Model

快速路交通事故多发且事故后果相对严重,通过分类量化快速路交通事故的潜在影响因素,采用方差分析法对各因素进行定性分析,确定交通事故的显著影响因素,进一步利用多元线性回归模型定量分析各显著因素对交通事故的影响程度。结果表明:超速、互通式立交、主辅路切换出口、辅路接入道路和坡度五个因素对快速路交通事故的影响程度依次递减。结合快速路关键因素及其影响程度,针对速度管理、互通式立交和主辅路接入管理提出可行的交通安全改善对策,为快速路交通治理提供参考借鉴。

Traffic accident of expressway is frequent and the consequence of accident is relatively serious.The paper classified and quantified the potential influencing factors of traffic accidents,analyzed the factors by analysis of variance,identified the significant influencing factors of traffic accidents,and further utilized multivariable linear regression model to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of significant influencing factors.The result shows that the influence degree of five factors including speeding,interchange,main and auxiliary road switch exit,auxiliary access road and slope decreases in turn.Combining with the key factors of expressway and their influence degree,this paper puts forward feasible measures to improve traffic safety for the problems of speed management,interchange and main and auxiliary road switch,and provides reference for highway traffic management.