基于改进K-means聚类模型的应急运输风险评估

Emergency Transportation Risk Assessment Based on Improved K-means Clustering Model

应急运输是应急处置行动顺利完成的重要保障,也是国家安全保障能力的重要组成部分。使用改进的K-means聚类模型来进行应急运输风险评估,采用WBS-RBS法对应急运输全过程进行分析,耦合工作包分解树和风险源分解树得到19个可能风险事件,将LEC法中的事故发生可能性、暴露于风险环境频繁程度、可能产生的后果作为3个评估指标,构建K-means聚类模型,对应急运输的可能风险事件进行聚类分析并评估其风险水平。结果表明:在19个可能风险事件中,运输力量不足和交通网络拥堵2项是应急运输中的Ⅳ类风险(较大风险),应急预案体系不完善、应急物资储备不足等8项是Ⅲ类风险(一般风险)。

Emergency transportation is an important guarantee for the completion of emergency operations,as well as an important component of the national security.In the paper,the improved Kmeans clustering model is used to evaluate the emergency transportation risk.The WBS-RBS method is used to analyze the whole process of emergency transportation,and 19 possible risk events are obtained by coupling work package decomposition tree and risk source decomposition tree.The possibility of accidents,the frequency of exposure to risk environment and the possible consequences in LEC method are taken as three evaluation indexes to build K-means clustering model,which is used to cluster the possible risk events of emergency transportation and evaluate the risk level.The results show that among the 19 possible risk events,insufficient transport capacity and traffic network congestion are Grade Ⅵ (higher risk),8 events such as imperfect emergency plan system and insufficient emergency materials reserve are GradeⅢ (general risk).