恶劣天气对高速公路交通阻断影响分析

Analysis of the Influence of Severe Weather on Highway Traffic Blocking

利用2014年~2018年205期《重大公路气象预警》期间的交通阻断信息及气象要素资料,通过气象影响指数(综合天气强度及活动范围)、影响省份与同步阻断里程长度的对比分析,研究恶劣天气对高速公路交通阻断的影响特征。结果表明:雾、降雨、降雪和台风是公路交通最关注的恶劣天气类型,其中以强降雨公路预警的次数最多,大雾公路预警次之,并均呈逐年上升态势;公路阻断里程长度与雾、台风及降雪气象影响指数呈显著正相关,均通过90%以上信度检验;交通阻断对雾和降雪天气更为敏感,而对降雨则一般具有延迟性和局地性特点;恶劣天气对交通阻断的影响呈现地域性差异,其中,雾天对华北、黄淮、江汉等地影响较大,降雨对川渝晋鲁等地影响更为显著,降雪普遍影响长江中下游及其以北地区,台风则主要对东南沿海登陆省份产生较大影响。

Based on the traffic blocking information and the meteorological data of 205 times of"Major Highway Meteorological Early Warning"from 2014 to 2018,the characteristics of the impact of severe weather on highway traffic blocking are analyzed by comparing meteorological impact indices(including comprehensive weather intensity and range),affected provinces and the mileage length of blocking.The results show that the most concerned types of severe weather for highway traffic are fog,rain,snow and typhoon.The number of heavy rainfall warnings is the largest among all weather types,followed by the number of fog warnings,and they both show an increasing trend.The correlation coefficients between the length of highway blocking and the meteorological impact indices of fog,typhoon and snowfall are significantly positive,all of which passed 90% reliability test.Traffic blocking is more sensitive to fog and snow,and the blocking often delays and is localized in rainy weather.The influence of severe weather on traffic blocking varies in different regions.For instance,fog has greater impact on North China,HuangHuai Plain and Jianghan Plain than that on other regions.Heavy rainfall has more remarkable impact on Sichuan,Chongqing,Shanxi and Shandong provinces.Snow generally affects the middle and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the regions northwards, while typhoon greatly influences the southeastern coastal provinces.