京津沪经济增长动能指数测度研究

Research on the measurement of economic growth kinetic energy index of Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai

我国经济要实现从高速增长向高质量发展转化,迫切需要完成新旧动能的转换。在新时代供给侧结构性改革的背景下,结合经济发展阶段理论构建评价经济增长动能转换的指标体系,从需求侧动能、结构转换动能和供给侧动能的研究视角,通过构建经济增长动能指数测度并分析京津沪2004—2017年的动能转换状态。结果表明,京津沪的经济增长动能仍主要来自需求侧,要素驱动作用明显,但结构转换动能逐渐增强,效率提升作用加大,供给侧动能还有待培育,技术创新驱动作用不明显。

The Chinese economy is to realize the transformation from high-speed growth to high-quality development,and there is an urgent need to complete the conversion from old kinetic energy to new kinetic energy.In the context of supply-side structural reform in the new era,the paper constructs an index system for evaluating the conversion of economic growth kinetic energy based on the theory of economic development stages.In the perspectives of demand-side kinetic energy,structural transformation kinetic energy and supply-side kinetic energy,it constructs the economic growth kinetic energy index to measure and analyze the kinetic energy conversion status of Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai from 2004 to 2017.The results show that the economic growth kinetic energy of Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai still mainly comes from the demand side and the factor-driven effect is obvious,but the structural transformation kinetic energy is gradually increasing and the efficiency improvement effect is also increasing.The supply-side kinetic energy needs to be cultivated,and the driving role of technological innovation is not obvious.