湖南省碳排放核算与碳中和能力评估研究

Study on Carbon Emission Accounting and Carbon Neutrality Evaluation in Hunan Province

为减少温室气体排放,减缓全球温室效应,中国提出争取在2060年前实现"碳中和"的宏伟目标。湖南省是中国能源消耗大省,其碳排放强度居全国前列,其碳排放量控制对中国实现"碳中和"目标有着深远影响。为估算其碳排放量,采用IPCC碳排放估算法,核算湖南省2003—2019年一次能源和电力消耗所产碳排放,并利用其固碳能力评估该省碳中和潜力。研究结果表明,湖南省的碳排放总量随时间的增加呈缓慢下降趋势,其中,电力消耗所产生的碳排放是其主要贡献源,也是湖南省实现碳中和的限制性因素。通过该研究,希望能最大程度地反映湖南省碳排放状况,为节能减排的政策制订和资源管理提供科学依据。

In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow down the global greenhouse effect,China has proposed the ambitious goal of achieving"carbon neutrality"by 2060.Hunan Province is a major energy-consuming province in China,and its carbon emission intensity ranks among the top in the country.Its carbon emission control has a profound impact on China's achievement of the goal of"carbon neutrality".In order to estimate its carbon emissions,this paper used the IPCC carbon emission estimation method to calculate the carbon emissions produced by the primary energy and electricity consumption in Hunan Pro-vince from 2003 to 2019,and used its carbon sequestration capacity to assess the carbon neutral potential of the province.The results of the study show that the total carbon emissions of Hunan Province are slowly declining over time,in which the carbon emissions generated by electricity consumption are the main source of its contribution,and it is also the limiting factor for the province to achieve carbon neutrality.Through this research,it is hoped that the carbon emission situation of Hunan Province can be reflected to the greatest extent,and a scientific basis can be provided for policy formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction and resource management.