数字普惠金融能提高农业全要素生产率吗?--基于省级面板数据的实证检验

Can Digital Inclusive Finance Improve Agricultural Total Factor Productivity:Positive Test Based on Provincial-level Panel Data

文章基于2011-2018年我国31个省份面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算我国农业全要素生产率的整体情况,并运用系统广义矩估计和面板门槛模型实证分析数字普惠金融与农村全要素生产率之间的关系。研究发现,我国农业全要素生产率在考察期内整体呈现增长态势,年均增长4.1%,但在考察期最后两年出现负增长;数字普惠金融对农业全要素生产率具有正向促进作用,且这种促进作用更加倾向于提高农业技术进步指数;各子维度中,覆盖广度对农业全要素生产率的促进作用最大。此外,数字普惠金融对农业全要素生产率的促进作用具有显著单门槛效应,跨越一定门槛值后,数字普惠金融的促进作用会增大,乘数效应更加明显。文章提出了发挥数字普惠金融对农业全要素生产率促进作用的建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018,the authors use DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the overall situation of agricultural total factor productivity in China,and uses system GMM estimation and panel threshold model to empirically analyze the relationship between digital inclusive finance and agricultural total factor productivity.It is found that the agricultural total factor productivity in China increased at an average annual rate of 4.1%,but showed a negative growth in the last two years of the study period.Digital inclusive finance has a positive effect on agricultural total factor productivity,and this promoting effect is more inclined to increase agricultural technology progress index.Among the sub-dimensions,the coverage breadth has the greatest promoting effect on agricultural total factor productivity.In addition,digital inclusive finance has a significant threshold effect on the promotion of agricultural total factor productivity.After crossing a certain threshold value,the promotion effect of digital inclusive finance has a significant single threshold effect.After a certain threshold,the promotion effect of digital inclusive finance will increase,and the multiplier effect will be more obvious.Accordingly,the authors put forward several suggestions on how to play the role of digital inclusive finance in promoting agricultural total factor productivity.